Committee calls for flexibility in compulsory annuity plan

January 31, 2008 by admin · 2 Comments
Filed under: CPF, Current Affairs 

A committee tasked to design the compulsory annuity plan will attempt to address some common objections in its upcoming recommendation.

The 18-member committee has suggested that for annuitants who die before reaping the full sum of what they had paid in premiums, the remainder should be returned to their families.

Another proposal is to give Singaporeans the choice of deciding at what age they want to start getting money from their annuity. The monthly amount will then be adjusted accordingly.

These are among the five key recommendations from the Government-appointed committee, chaired by Professor Lim Pin, who gave a preview on Wednesday of the probable shape of the scheme.

However, I am of the opinion that as long as the plan remains compulsory, and the government refuses to top up the annuity fund with its own budget surplus, the compulsory annuity plan remains a citizen-funded plan that places control of retirement funds outside the hands of retirees. Not only is the government still refusing the right of people to control of their own wealth, they are absolving themselves of the responsibility to participate in the citizens’ retirement planning needs.

Since the government has profitted from the use of CPF has a cheap source of funding, it is only right that is should repay that debt to Singaporeans by topping up the annuity pool from its own surpluses.

By slowly privatizing all aspects of nation building, relegating the normal functions of government to the private sector, and absolving themselves of responsibility with regards to retirement planning, the government is slowly but surely destroying, in the words of author Catherine Lim, the compact “that governs the government-people relationship in every mature society in the free world”.

Until the government changes its stand regarding these issues, I will continue to strongly oppose the Compulsory Annuity scheme.

Some of my thoughts on CPF, foreign talents and globalization

January 31, 2008 by admin · 3 Comments
Filed under: Current Affairs 

I was responding to one of Thinkall’s posts in Sammyboy Coffeeshop forum.

Thinkall wrote in one of his posts:

… … As long we there is no firm understanding in this country why wealth decision making belongs to individuals, the State extends its tentacular claws on all aspects of life, which is what it is doing.

The reason why we find the State almost impossible to be delimited is precisely because the real cost of such intervention has not been bared out for all to see.

… …

Now, CPF obligation must also be the same reason why such cost must be laid bare before the whole country. There is no way this government can possible cover the holes they dug for themselves for the last 40 years, constantly dipping into CPF for all kinds of unproductive allocations.

The collective cost of state intervention is now becoming clear, very clear: The high cost of living; the high level of individual debt in Singapore; the constant delay in payment of CPF due; the attempt to eliminate obligation with compulsory annuity; the explosion of immigrants to enhance incremental flow of monies into CPF to buttress the float; the unwillingness of G&T to be openly audited; the constant change in CPF rules to ensure liquidity in accounts even when there is no apparently reason (.i.e. the recent 20k rule that cannot be invested by April 2008); the attempt to incentivise current CPF funds receivers to delay receiving such funds.

All CPF changes, voluntary and involuntary, do just one thing: to delay payment … …

My reply:

The idea of CPF began from the British, and it was a good idea. In the early years, the PAP made use of CPF to foster national savings. This cheap source of funding was also used to fund govt projects, build infrastructure, and develop the economy. An entire generation benefitted from rising property prices and wages. Home price appreciation gave them a secure retirement, and this was handed down to the next generation, creating a core 40% group of voters who would unfailing mark the lightning box at every election.

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Indonesia’s ex-president Suharto passes away at age 86

January 27, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Breaking News, International 

Former Indonesian president Suharto, who helmed Indonesia for 32 years, died on 27 Jan 08, Sunday, of multiple organ failure. He was 86.

A statement issued by Chief Presidential Dr Marjo Subiandono said he was declared dead at 1.10pm (2.10pm Singapore time).

‘My father passed away peacefully,’ sobbed Suharto’s eldest daughter, Tutut. ‘May God bless him and forgive all of his mistakes and place him beside Allah’.

The office of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced a week of national mourning for ‘the country’s best son’, calling for flags to be flown at half-staff.

Suharto – a US Cold War ally – was toppled by massive street protests at the peak of the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

His fall opened the way for democracy in this predominantly Muslim nation of 235 million people and he withdrew from public life.

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Thinkall on the issue of leverage, banking, Singapore’s SWF, and the subprime crisis

January 27, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs, Thinkall 

24 Jan 08

The business of banking is a very simple business; the only difficulty is the myriad devices developed for existing and contingent liabilities. The whole business survives on credit and financial reputation.

We currently own a whole host of banking entities not truly understanding that collective liabilities amassed are nothing short of one way ticket to financial hell in any future unwinding, which must come.

The business of financing modern economy is simply leverage.

Every single household is a leverage entity from here all the way to Europe and America.

Not a single family is spared.

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53 Malaysian activists detained

January 26, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Breaking News, International 

Malaysian police detained 53 activists 26 Jan 08, Saturday, in a crackdown on a planned opposition-led protest over inflation ahead of national elections expected within weeks.

Opposition groups wanted to hold the rally Saturday outside Kuala Lumpur’s landmark Petronas Twin Towers to demand that the government forego a likely fuel price hike and prevent the cost of essential goods from rising.

Authorities said organizers had not applied for the legally required permission to hold a public demonstration. Opposition leaders said their application would probably have been rejected, noting that police had prevented several street demonstrations since November.

Police turned out in their hundreds to disperse the gathering of about 100 people at the Twin Towers, which were barricaded and under heavy guard. Some shouted “Reformasi,” the Malay word for “reform.”

Kuala Lumpur Police Chief Muhammad Sabtu Osman said 1,300 police had been deployed to maintain order, and 40 men and 13 women were arrested for illegal assembly, including one journalist. They were expected to be held at least overnight while police decide whether to charge them.

“We’re not causing any problems, we’re just saying that prices are going up and the poor are hurting,” Socialist Party of Malaysia chairman Mohamed Nasir said before he was taken away by police.

The detained journalist was from Malaysiakini, a news website which is one of the few independent media organisations in the country and whose offices were raided by the government in 2003.

“I’m definitely disturbed by this. It shows that police are not respecting the rights of journalists to do their job,” said Malaysiakini’s editor in chief Steven Gan. “They should have released him as soon as he identified himself as a journalist,” he said.

The government has refused to give Malaysiakini staff the press pass which journalists need to access official events.

Rising prices of essential items and services, such as food and transportation, are among voters’ key concerns ahead of general elections that are widely expected to be held in March.

On Friday, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi told CNN that Malaysians appear to be ready for general elections — in his clearest indication so far that he plans to call early polls soon.

The ruling National Front’s current five-year mandate only expires in mid-2009. The coalition — which has governed Malaysia since 1957 — is expected to easily retain power.

MRT network length to double by 2020

January 25, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs 

The government will pump in another S$20 billion on new MRT rail lines and extensions islandwide, Transport Minister Raymond Lim announced Friday. This is over and above the S$20 billion the government has already committed for the on-going Boon Lay extension, the Circle Line and the Downtown Line.

Mr Lim said the new and extended lines will go to places as diverse as Marine Parade and even Tuas.

There are currently 138 kilometres of rail lines. By 2020, authorities hope to double the network length and expect it to carry three times as many journeys, from today’s 1.4 million a day to 4.6 million in 2020.

The Thomson Line, to be ready by 2018, will run from Marina Bay through the Central Business District, all the way up to Ang Mo Kio and Woodlands. It will connect to another new Line, the Eastern Region Line, at Marina Bay.

The Eastern Region Line, to be ready by 2020, will serve areas such as Siglap and Marine Parade.

Existing lines will also be extended. The North-South Line will be extended one kilometre south to serve the Marina Bay area developments while the East-West Line will be extended another 14 kilometres west into Tuas.

To avoid long waiting time and crowded trains, there will be 93 additional train trips during the morning and evening peaks.

Completion dates of the various lines are also being fast-forwarded. Part of the Circle Line which was due to open from 2010 onwards, will now open in mid-2009. Completion of the Downtown Line will also be brought forward by two years to 2016.

Parliamentary Snapshots – 22 Jan 08 (More Updates)

January 24, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs, Political Discussions 

Over 100,000 low-wage workers have not signed up for Workfare

Over 100,000 low-wage workers and the self-employed, who could get Government income supplements, have not registered for the money, revealed in Parliament by Senior Parliamentary Secretary (Manpower) Hawazi Daipi.

The WIS scheme replaces the one-off Workfare Bonus that was given to older workers who earned $1,500 and below. The new scheme is for those aged at least 35 and earn $1,500 or less. However, unlike the bonus, the Government has linked the scheme with CPF. Workers must contribute to at least the Medisave scheme before they can qualify for Workfare payments.

The Editor feels strongly that the number of dependents a worker has MUST be taken into consideration in determining WIS payouts.

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Thinkall: PAP will fall with SWFs books

January 24, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs, Thinkall 

23 Jan 08

The whole notion that the Government is not in control of the degree of investment and principles that delimit the investment quantum is simply ridiculous.

The whole notion of separation of SWF’s responsibilities from State Governance is simply unacceptable.

Is the state merely an investor?

Do the monies belong to the state? Is not the state merely a custodian of those funds?

Is there a more complex relationship?

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US Presidential Election 2008 – Where Are The Conservatives?

January 23, 2008 by admin · 1 Comment
Filed under: International, Political Discussions 

Gary Halbert’s Weekly E-Letter
Delivered Every Wednesday
1/22/2008

Why Are Conservatives Losing Elections?

Some political analysts believe the Republicans will lose more seats in the House and Senate this year. The question is why. For years, polls have shown that a majority of Americans consider themselves to be conservatives rather than liberals. So why then did so-called conservative candidates take such a drubbing in the 2006 mid-term elections, when Republicans lost seven seats in the Senate and 31 seats in the House, thereby giving the Democrats majority rule in both houses of Congress?

The definition of “conservative” varies widely, but here is what are generally considered to be the main conservative values and positions: 1) smaller government and limited regulation; 2) balanced budgets; 3) free markets and trade; 4) lower taxes; 5) strong military; 6) pro-life; 7) strong moral values; and more recently, 8) sealing the US borders to stem illegal immigration.

On the subject of illegal immigration, conservatives are divided about what to do with the estimated 12+ million immigrants who are in the US illegally. Some conservatives would prefer that these people be rounded up and deported, but most have no idea how difficult or impossible this would be, or what the enormous economic repercussions would be – can you say recession? But on balance, I think many conservatives would be satisfied if the borders were really sealed, even if the current illegals with no criminal records were allowed to stay given certain conditions.

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Parliamentary Snapshots – 22 Jan 08

January 23, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs, Political Discussions 

Medisave balance of $33,000 adequate for hospitalisation needs: Khaw

Singaporeans have an average $13,600 in their Medisave accounts, which can cover up to 13 Class C or 10 Class B2 hospitalisations. Coupled with their MediShield, the current Medisave balance of $33,000 is sufficient to take care of most Singaporeans’ basic hospitalisation needs, said Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan.

But he acknowledged that as hospital services are upgraded to meet rising expectations of patients, and new medical technology is brought in, costs will continue to rise. And with this, the demand on Medisave will grow.

He said that is why the Government has periodically adjusted the Medisave minimum sum, currently set at $28,500, and the Medisave contribution ceiling, at $33,500.

Cab drivers’ earnings up, cab waiting times down: Raymond Lim

Transport Minister Raymond Lim said the fare revision last month was effective in meeting the increasing demand of taxis in the Central Business District (CBD). Mr Lim revealed that commuters in the city only have to wait for up to 6 minutes for a cab, significantly less than the 5 to 22 minutes before the fare hike.

Mr Lim also said their earnings have however gone up. Based on figures provided by ComfortDelGro, Singapore’s biggest taxi operator, cabbies are pocketing about $11 more a day, earning about $318.

The Editor is of the opinion that a mere increase of $11 in daily taxi earnings is a pittance, especially in light of the strong possibility that transport companies will UNSCRUPULOUSLY use the recent fare hikes as an EXCUSE to raise taxi rentals in the future.

Parliamentary Snapshots – 21 Jan 08

January 23, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs, Political Discussions 

Health-care costs jumped 6.2% last year

The cost of health care shot up last year by 6.2 per cent, a big jump over the annual average of 2.4 per cent for the previous five years.

In releasing the figures yesterday, Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan attributed the higher than normal increase to a surge in fees in public and private hospitals, outpatient specialist fees in public health-care institutions, and the cost of Chinese herbs and treatments from Chinese physicians.

Tharman: Many schemes to help those struggling with rising costs

Low-income Singaporeans who keep at their jobs will get additional cash and CPF contributions with the Workfare scheme. Those with schoolgoing children can tap into school financial assistance schemes. The criteria for these were widened last year to take in more families. The elderly, jobless and poor can turn to the ComCare fund set up to ensure that no one is left behind as Singapore restructures its economy. Medifund, the national health-care safety net, will step in to help the needy with their hospital bills.

Mr Tharman made these points in response to labour MP Halimah Yacob’s (Jurong GRC) questions on whether the Government would do something extra for the poor as the inflation rate threatens to push past the 5 per cent mark. It hit 4.2 per cent in November, the fastest increase in 25 years.

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Singapore Democrats: Election reform – What needs to be done

January 23, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Political Discussions, SDP 

Election reform: What needs to be done
Singapore Democrats
22 Jan 08

In his speech at the election reform forum on Sunday organised by the Singapore Democrats, Dr Chee Soon Juan pointed out several activities that needed to be done in order to being about change to our electoral system:

Research best practices. A report is much needed to reflect best practices in elections systems around the world. It is not to compare the types of elections such as the winner-take-all system or proportional representation format but rather to publish a set of recommended practices that allows elections to be conducted fairly and cleanly. The deficiencies of the system in Singapore can then be measured against these best practices and focus be made to rectify the ills.

Develop website. A website that would document all the information about Singapore’s election system and its flaws is presently not available. Such a site would be very useful for reform activists as well as researchers/observers/analysts.

Publish training manual for poll watchers. A write-up should be published on the goings-on of elections for volunteer poll watchers. The publication would highlight the process of voting and teach the watchers what to look out for as well as to report any anomaly that occurs.

Recruit and train poll watchers. Non-party poll watchers should be recruited and trained to observe the voting process. The effort should begin now so that enough volunteers can be recruited and be ready to be assigned to the various polling and counting stations when the next elections are called.

Raise awareness. The reform agenda must necessarily include raising awareness among Singaporeans on the importance of revamping our horrendous election rules and procedures. This should start with the various communities such as university students, women’s groups, NGOs, etc and then reaching out to the general public. Such an activity is needed in order to gain public support for the reform effort.

Seek support from bloggers. The blogging community can play an active role in the campaign. Calls should be made to bloggers to help disseminate information about the problems about elections in Singapore and effort to institute changes.

Seek international observers. Effort must be made to raise the profile of flawed elections in Singapore. Organisations like the United Nations, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the European Commission, International Federation for Election Systems, etc must be made aware of the situation here. They should also be encouraged to send teams to observe elections here.

Learn from overseas reform campaigns. Reform campaigners should learn from activists in other jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and so on about some of the activities undertaken and the effectiveness.

Engage the Prime Minister’s Office and the Elections Department. Even though the authorities would rather us disappear, a sustained effort must be made to meet with them and impress upon them the necessity and urgency for election reform.

The list is, of course, not exhaustive. The SDP would like to see a working committee establishedto identify other initiatives that may be needed as well as to carry out some of the activities mentioned above.

We will call for another meeting soon to coordinate this effort. If you did not sign up at the forum on Sunday, please email us at speakup@singaporedemocrat.org

Watch video clips of Dr Chee’s forum presentation here (courtesy of watchtowerv)
[Part I], [Part II], [Part III]

Chia Ti Lik’s speech at SDP forum on electoral reform, 20 Jan 08

January 22, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Chia Ti Lik, Current Affairs, Political Discussions, SDP 

How to reform the election system

Good Afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen, friends and family, observers and activists. Welcome to this forum. My name is Ti Lik, and I am tasked with opening the topic of reform of the election system.

I do so from the vantage of someone who has been there and done that. I have seen the elections from both sides of the camp albeit on different levels, I am currently also experiencing pushing for change from a non-partisan vantage point and of being someone who wishes change to come and will support the party who genuinely pushes for that change.

By targeting the election system we are also referring to the process of elections, the structure of the state institutions and its flaws.

Now, the question of reform of the country and its institutions is a forgone issue. By and large people would agree that reform in those areas are much needed and all of us will agree that change would have to take place in accordance to law or via the establishment of a new legal order.

1. take place in accordance to law – self explanatory

2. establishment of a new legal order – setting a new government via extra – electoral action / revolution / coup etc.

Very often the much needed reform is described as something to be done only after you secure power which falls under (1). This is the ploy of the People’s Action Party.

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Singapore Democrats: Singaporeans Participated in International Human Rights Torch Relay

January 22, 2008 by admin · 2 Comments
Filed under: Current Affairs, SDP, Voices of the People 

Singaporeans Participated in International Human Rights Torch Relay
Singapore Democrats
21 Jan 08

For the first time in Singaporean history, a human rights torch had come on shore, so declared human rights lawyer Mr M. Ravi, the president of the Singapore chapter of the Coalition to Investigate the Persecution of Falun Gong (CIPFG). On Saturday, a group of human rights activists and Falung Gong practitioners gather at the Civil Service Club at Changi to continue the international torch relay, which had started in Greece and gone on through countries such Sweden, Australia, New Zealand and most recently Indonesia. An initiative of the CIPFG, the relay is to highlight human rights abuses in China, and in particular the ongoing harvesting of organs from Falun Gong practitioners. The coalition is also calling for the boycott of the Beijing Olympics 2008.

At the convening conference, Mr Ravi expressed elation that Singaporeans are now showing more care and concern about human rights issues and abuses. Citing his own experience with the Falung Gong practitioners as their legal representative when a few practitioners were charged for illegal assembly in Singapore, Mr Ravi assured the audience that their persecution under the hand of the Chinese authority is well documented and not something their have fabricated.

Guest speaker Mr JB Jeyaratnam voiced support for the cause and added that there are also human rights violations in Singapore. He expressed the hope that when the time comes [to stand up against human rights violations in Singapore], that we will all be up to it.

The Assistant Secretary-General of the Singapore Democrat Party, Mr John Tan, recounted his interest and concern about human rights abuses in China since his youth. He has heard of persecution of Christians, Tibetans and, more recently, Falung Gong practitioners. Counting it an honour to be able to play a role in calling China to accountability, Mr Tan stressed that China must not be allowed to get away with their abuses by collecting international goodwill through the hosting of the Olympics.

In between local speakers, the moderator, Mr Sng Beng Kok, conducted e-interviews with two foreign guests. Both the Asia Director of the Human Rights Law Foundation, USA, Ms Theresa Chu, and the Human Rights Torch Relay Organising Committee member in Australia, Mr Hamish Oliver Perrett, articulated their support and wished the Singapore relay well.

After the conference, the group held a brief ceremony to commemorate the relay of the human rights torch and proceeded to the Chinese embassy to hand in a petition (see content here). Thereafter, they went to Mount Faber Park for some photographs before dispersing.

As their numbers dwindled, police officers confronted the remaining ten persons and seized their banners and torches on the pretext that the items were needed to aid in the investigation into their possible commission of illegal assembly.

Stories and video in Chinese from other sources can be found here and here.

Clarification on Straits Times article on SDP forum

January 21, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Clarifications 

I REFER to the article “Activists seek changes in electoral system” (ST, 21 Jan).

The article stated that lawyer Chia Ti Lik is the leader of SG Human Rights.

This statement is not true. SG Human Rights is an informal grouping with no administrative structure.

Perhaps this is just an error of expression. It would be better to say instead that Chia Ti Lik is a leader in human rights advocacy.

SDP’s public forum on electoral reform, 20 Jan 08

January 20, 2008 by admin · 4 Comments
Filed under: Current Affairs, Political Discussions, SDP 

SDP just concluded a public forum on electoral reform, held at Allson Hotel on 20 Jan 08, Sunday, from 2pm to 5pm.

Speakers at the forum included Chia Ti Lik, J.B. Jeyaretnam, Jufrie Mahmood, and Dr Chee Soon Juan. Mr Tan Tarn How was slated to speak too but backed down.

The forum could only be described as passionate, lively, sincere, and robust.

True to his firebrand style politics, Chia Ti Lik fired the opening salvo by pointing out the severe flaws in our current electoral system, and lambasting certain Opposition parties for having the cheek to openly claim to seek electoral reform in their manifesto, but only pay lip service to those ideals in Parliament. He said that this was tantamount to defrauding the electorate. Calling a spade a spade, Chia Ti Lik said that merely having a government approved Opposition in Parliament that is only content with operating within the system and scratching the back of the PAP would get us nowhere. He said that if the avenue to reform the system through parliamentary means was closed to us, we should seek to do so by other legal extra-parliamentary means such as campaigns and robust public dialogue.

J.B. Jeyaretnam recounted the colourful history of his participation in the elections and related it to serious issues facing the electorate like the fear factor, freedom of information, transparency, funding for political parties and what he calls “the blatant intimidation of voters”. Jufrie Mahmood said that we should first seek to reform our media which is blatantly pro-PAP if we are to stand a chance of reforming the electoral system. Finally, Dr Chee Soon Juan gave a resounding wrap-up of the stark reality that we face and the work that needs to be done. Lamenting the lack of an independent electoral body, Dr Chee called for a committee to be formed to examine how the establishment of independent election commission could be achieved. He said that he would continue to persuade Opposition parties and civil groups to come together and unite in this cause. He also called upon everyone who was willing to participate in reforming our electoral system to indicate their support by standing up. Most members of the audience rose and eagerly stood up to be counted.

At the end of the event, a form was passed around to allow people to sign up to join the committee on electoral reform.

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Case proposes changes to Consumer Protection Act

January 19, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs 

Consumers can look forward to even more protection from business practices aimed to make a quick buck out of them.

The Consumers Association of Singapore (Case) wants to target businesses such as those which bill for unsolicited goods and services, or sell what should be free gifts or samples.

During a seminar for CaseTrust members at the Supreme Court Auditorium yesterday, Case highlighted a series of proposed amendments to the Consumer Protection (Fair Trading) Act regarding motor vehicle dealer deposits, regulated financial products and services, opt-out practices and cancellation of contracts.

Case has received complaints from consumers who, after initially receiving free services or products, such as anti-virus software or magazines, found they were then billed for subsequent provision of the services or products.

Disclaimers & Clarifications

January 18, 2008 by admin · 3 Comments
Filed under: Chief Editor, Clarifications 

Statement by Ng E-Jay, Chief Editor

The following web page was NOT done by me. I have already written in to google and blogger to complain that this is a case of impersonation and requested for their assistance.

http://ngejayblog.blogspot.com/

The following videos, which to my knowledge were posted on youtube around 6-8 months ago, were also NOT done by me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-guxHFyz2A – TITLE: homeless and poor in Singapore

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1YJLwM4iPk – TITLE: Lee Kuan Yew

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr0Kqt6-bck – TITLE: Singapore’s extraordinary government

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jldRWPJmdoM – TITLE: Sink-A-Poor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW_GKgGPS4Y – TITLE: PAP is the enemy – know your enemy

The above youtube videos were posted by a youtube moniker “sgpolitics” which unfortunately happens to be the same title as this blog. Nonetheless, I would like to clarify that I am not the youtube moniker “sgpolitics”, I was NOT involved in any way with the creation or posting of those videos, and I do NOT know who did it.

My youtube moniker is “ngejay”, as is my moniker on the popular online forum Sammyboy Alfresco Coffeeshop.

Stratfor’s Geopolitical and Global Economic Forecasts For 2008

January 18, 2008 by admin · 2 Comments
Filed under: Current Affairs, International 

Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting Inc. – http://www.stratfor.com) is a leading private intelligence service providing insights into political, economic, and military developments around the globe. They have released their annual forecast for 2008. Their geopolitical outlook and forecast for the US and global economy are as follows.

Geopolitical Outlook

There are three major global processes under way that will continue to work themselves out in 2008. First, the U.S.-jihadist war is entering its final phase; the destruction of al Qaeda’s strategic capabilities now allows the United States to shift its posture – which includes leveraging the Sunni world to finish the job begun in Iraq – and enables Washington to begin drawing down its Middle Eastern forces. Second, an assertive Russia is re-emerging and taking advantage of the imbalance in U.S. power resulting from the war. Third, oil at historical highs and continued Asian – particularly Chinese – exports have created a massive redistribution of financial might that is reshaping the international financial architecture. These processes intersect with each other, as well as with a fourth phenomenon: It is a presidential election year in the United States, which remains the center of gravity of the international system. These are the trends that shape our global forecast.

Normally in an election year, U.S. attention on global affairs dwindles precipitously, allowing other powers to set the agenda. That will not be the case, however, in 2008. U.S. President George W. Bush is not up for re-election, and there is no would-be successor from the administration in the race; this frees up all of the administration’s bandwidth for whatever activities it wishes. Additionally, Bush’s unpopularity means that each of the White House’s domestic initiatives essentially will be dead on arrival in Congress. All of the Bush administration’s energy will instead be focused on foreign affairs, since such activities do not require public or congressional approval. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, 2008 will see the United States acting with the most energy and purpose it has had since the months directly after the 9/11 attack.

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Asian ‘godfathers’ maintain mystique by Rowan Callick (The Australian)

January 17, 2008 by admin · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Current Affairs, International 

Asian ‘godfathers’ maintain mystique
Rowan Callick
The Australian
9 Jan 08
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23013959-7583,00.html

The rise of China and the revival of most other Asian economies have consigned the financial crisis of a decade ago to a distant haze.

We’re back, for the most part, in admiration mode. Clever blighters, these Asians, how on earth do they do it?

One ubiquitous answer is that their good economic fortunes are driven substantially by brilliant entrepreneurs – almost all of them apparently ethnic Chinese – who have seized their chance with verve, being let off the regulatory leash to create diverse business empires out of virtually nothing.

Enter Joe Studwell, iconoclastic British author of The China Dream and founder of the excellent Hong Kong-based China Economic Quarterly.

His recently published Asian Godfathers: Money and Power in Hong Kong and southeast Asia is one of the best business books of 2007, and one of the best on Asia.

He calls the tycoons who are his subjects “godfathers”, but adds the disclaimer that he does not mean to paint them with Mario Puzo’s mafia brush – and rather enjoys their company.

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